Oscar Predictions 2026
Staff writers Wong Dao En and Adrian Ho survey the nominees and discuss their predictions for the impending 98th Academy Awards.
With the 98th Academy Awards right around the corner, it has become tradition for many of us to predict the winners for the ceremony. As such, we would like to bring you into our predictions as two cinephiles who have been following the Oscars race for a couple of years now.
Disclaimer: We have not watched all the movies, but we will base our predictions based on voter patterns derived from past Oscar awardees, precursor wins (from other award shows), and the strength of the nominees’ industry support based on online observation. We are amateur predictors and do not claim to be pundits.
Best Picture
〰️
Best Picture 〰️
Contenders:
Bugonia – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen, producers
F1 – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber, producers
Hamnet – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes, producers
Marty Supreme – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet, producers
One Battle After Another – Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers
The Secret Agent – Emilie Lesclaux, producer
Sentimental Value – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers
Sinners – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler, producers
Train Dreams – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler, producers
Image from The New Yorker.
Who will win: One Battle After Another
Next likely to win: Sinners
Notable snubs: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, Sorry Baby, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wicked: For Good
DE: It seems likely that One Battle After Another (2025) will take home the grand prize of the night. The film received universal acclaim for its bold commentary on the current political climate in the United States, and a win here could finally mark a departure for Hollywood from its safer, lesser-risk past winners to one that positions the Academy as one that might even endorse rebellion in the face of fascism. I have unfortunately still not watched this film yet, and I’m not proud to admit that.
Notably, Wicked: For Good (2025) was totally shut out of this year’s ceremony, despite it being a frontrunner during early predictions (I did think Ariana would win Supporting Actress, as she came pretty close last year). While its omission makes sense as the film received lukewarm reviews from critics and audiences alike, other critically acclaimed films like Sorry, Baby (2025) and The Testament of Ann Lee (2025) were also unfortunately snubbed mostly due to lack of publicity and bad campaigning from their distributors.
Adrian: Among all the films nominated for Best Picture this year at the Oscars, I think the likeliest film to garner the status of a classic would be that of Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Now this isn’t the reason why I think One Battle After Another is likely to clinch the Best Picture Oscar – that has more to do with the legacy of Anderson as a director, its distinct American spirit and the timeliness of the picture – but I think there may finally be some serendipity in terms of expectations and reality when it comes to a deserved Best Picture winner. The momentum of One Battle After Another feels much too strong to deny at this point, though if there is any narrative to look out for in this Oscars, it would be between that and Sinners (2025) – which has garnered a historic 16 Academic Awards nominations and maintained itself as a possible dark horse candidate throughout.
While Sorry, Baby and The Testament of Ann Lee are both films which I feel deserves a shout in the Best Picture race, it is for me, Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident (2025) which remains as the biggest snub of the category and proves to me that despite the posturing from the Academy as a global and culturally inclusive Awards body, it is still at its heart, an American institution, and the Oscars are still an American awards show.
Best Director
〰️
Best Director 〰️
Contenders
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Image from Rolling Stone.
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Next likely to win: Ryan Coogler
Notable snubs: Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident, Guillermo Del Toro – Frankenstein
Adrian: More than the Best Picture Category, Best Director feels like the most secured win for Paul Thomas Anderson. Not only does it feel like it’s time for Anderson to join the pantheon of great directors with an Oscar, but that it has been long overdue. Once the up-and-comer, now the veteran presence, Anderson has prior to this 98th Academy Award, been nominated 14 times without a single win. However, this time around, it truly feels like the right moment to crown Anderson with the Best Director Oscar and with Anderson sweeping the BAFTAs, the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes for Picture, Director and Screenplay, the momentum is undeniable.
Coogler winning here would undoubtedly be an upset, but not an impossibility. Like Anderson, Coogler has maintained a strong presence in all of the early Award indicators, and has been awarded Best Director in the Astra Film Awards. So if there’s someone to punt on, it would probably be Coogler. Notably, the Best Director Category is light on veteran presences this year. Guillermo Del Toro seems to be the most shocking absence, though with Frankenstein getting little love from Academy voters beyond the below-the-line categories, it is perhaps not a total surprise.
DE: With the Academy so enthusiastic with Sinners, it does seem likely that Anderson might lose to Coogler in a devastating upset for his long-but-unawarded career. But with how much the Academy has been loving career narratives and comeback stories, I feel like Academy voters will finally award Anderson after decades of leaving the Oscars empty-handed.
I was genuinely surprised that Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi blanked in this category. Despite his numerous contributions of anti-regime films across the years, this is the first time he has gotten such wide recognition, mostly owing to his Palme d’Or win at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival. Notably, his documentary This Is Not a Film (2011) was smuggled out of Iran to the 2011 Cannes Film Festival on a flash drive when he was on house arrest facing a 20-year filmmaking ban. I thought that the Academy may finally acknowledge him for the self-sacrifice and the lengths he has gone to for the art form back home, but I guess I was dreaming too big again.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
〰️
Best Actor in a Leading Role 〰️
Image from The Spectator.
Contenders:
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Who will win: Timothée Chalamet
Next likely to win: Michael B. Jordan / Wagner Moura
Notable snubs: Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
Adrian: Perhaps the most exciting race this Awards season. A category that’s still up in the air and besides Hawke, it feels like anybody could take home the Oscar. While Chalamet maintains pole position, Jordan and Moura are both serious contenders. DiCaprio on the other hand is someone who you can never count out, especially with the strength of One Battle After Another, and the weight of his name alone. What Chalamet has on the others though is his viral-driven and unhinged campaign approach. Like Marty, Chalamet is unafraid to announce to the world that he wants what he wants, and that he’ll do anything to get there. That passion and drive could be the inch he needs to clinch the Oscar, but really, who’s to say?
DE: Very unpredictable race. Chalamet was the frontrunner until the awards season started rolling, and then suddenly everyone on X and TikTok is hating on him for what they perceive as arrogance and snobbishness. Jordan is probably the second most likely to win now, as he has rallying industry support and took the win back at the Actor Awards – a decision that I cannot really say I am happy with. (I don’t hate the guy, but I don’t think his acting in Sinners was a standout. Miles Caton anyone?)
Brazilian actor Wagner Moura won the Best Actor Award at Cannes, and with how his fellow compatriot Fernanda Torres was close to winning last year as well, some voters may choose to make him the dark horse for this season. There is much online chatter for DiCaprio, who gives a performance that many people enjoy – and while he hasn’t won any precursor, support for him also seems strong. It would be hilarious if Ethan Hawke ends up winning instead. That’s the chaos I want from award ceremonies.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
〰️
Best Actress in a Leading Role 〰️
Image from The New York Times.
Contenders:
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia
Who will win: Jessie Buckley
Next likely to win: Rose Byrne
Notable snubs: Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love, Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another, Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee, Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
DE: Leading Actress is always a tight race every year without fail (or perhaps the one I care about the most, so I follow it the most). Lots of amazing performances this year, with a curveball Kate Hudson nomination that most argue should be occupied by one of the other snubbed actresses instead. Nonetheless, this race is the most unanimous one this year (which is pretty rare for this category), and it seems unlikely that Buckley isn’t winning. It is pretty much just a two-person race between Buckley and Byrne at this point.
I would like to give a quick shoutout to Renate Reinsve who I think gave one of the best acting performances I’ve seen in The Worst Person in the World (2021). Yet she somehow still blanked that ceremony despite winning Best Actress at Cannes! I am happy that she finally got her flowers, but unfortunately this is a pretty competitive year, so she is most likely missing her chance.
Adrian: We’re in total agreement. Buckley feels like the inevitable winner but Byrne does feel like the dark horse contender, receiving many accolades alongside Buckley this awards season. With that said, for me, the biggest story out of the Best Actress Category is the snub of Chase Infiniti, who gave an outstanding performance across from Dicaprio in her feature film debut. The Oscars love an ingénue but apparently not more than Hudson in Song Sung Blue. One of the most perplexing nominations in this Oscars particularly because of the relative strength of the other contending nominees – Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) and Lawrence (Die My Love) to name two!
Best International Feature
〰️
Best International Feature 〰️
Image from SGIFF.
Contenders:
It Was Just an Accident (France) in Persian and Azerbaijani – Jafar Panahi
The Secret Agent (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – Kleber Mendonça Filho
Sentimental Value (Norway) in Norwegian, Swedish, and English – Joachim Trier
Sirāt (Spain) in Spanish, French, and Arabic – Oliver Laxe
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) in Arabic – Kaouther Ben Hania
Who will win: Sentimental Value
Next likely to win: The Secret Agent
Notable snubs: Kokuho (Japan), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan), Magellan (Philippines), No Other Choice (South Korea), Sound of Falling (Germany)
DE: Although It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival last year, it seems to have lost some momentum this awards season, being overtaken by The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value – both of which also premiered at Cannes, and all of which are also distributed by Neon. Sentimental Value is likely to take this one home, as at one point it was a Best Picture frontrunner. No Other Choice (2025)’s snub was also particularly significant, considering it was nominated at the Golden Globes as well, but it was always competing for the fifth spot with Sirāt.
This is a bad year for Asian movies, but let’s be real, we all know how Eurocentric the Academy is. Last year, it was How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (2024) that blanked, and this year it was No Other Choice! Nonetheless, this category is not one of my favourites as each country determines its submission by committee, which sometimes lead to some rather questionable choices. China decided to choose Dead to Rights (2025), probably because it raises awareness about the Nanjing Massacre – and while I don’t think it is a bad choice (it has good reviews too), they also had Bi Gan’s Resurrection (2025), and Ne Zha 2 (2025) to choose from. This exposes an inherent flaw in the system: that for a country as huge as China, choosing only one film to represent a nation can be reductive in its implicit generalising of diverse identities and practices.
Adrian: Once again the Academy snubs Park Chan-wook! Not only has he never won but he has never been nominated, only shortlisted once before with Decision to Leave (2022), and now again with No Other Choice – a film which joins a string of anxious state-of-the-nation addresses from filmmakers this year highlighting the contemporary anxieties of modern life. Park’s continued absence from the Oscars screams to me a certain lack of openness which has persisted despite the push towards a more international Academy body. The Best International Feature Category for me is one that is deeply conflicting. Yes, it shines a light on films from across the globe which need the attention but its marginal status, away from the Best Picture race also shows that it's only always just a sideshow attraction. This category is precisely why the Oscars will always have a caveat in its claim towards diversity.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
〰️
Best Actor in a Supporting Role 〰️
Contenders:
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Image from Hollywood Outbreak.
Who will win: Sean Penn
Next likely to win: Stellan Skarsgård/Delroy Lindo
Notable snubs: Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly, Paul Mescal – Hamnet
Adrian: Perhaps the most tightly contested category amongst the acting ones, as it is too close to call between Sean Penn, Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgård. I could see the night going in any direction, but if I was a betting man — and I am! — I would have to give the nod to Sean Penn. Giving life to one of the vilest villains on screen in the 21st Century has to account for something, right?
On another note, probably one of the most high-profile snubs of this Academy Awards is the exclusion of Paul Mescal in this category. Ear-marked as a frontrunner for the longest time, only for Delroy Lindo to earn the nomination instead – again showing the strength of Sinners in the Oscars. Though for me, the performer that’s notably absent is Adam Sandler, who gives another heartfelt turn in Baumbach’s sentimental Jay Kelly (2025). One of my favourite performances in one of my favourite films of the year, but sadly, it doesn’t seem that many in the Academy feel the same way.
DE: If Sean Penn does win, it would be his third Oscar win, which would tie him with Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson for the most wins by a male actor. This is not a common feat, and what’s crazy is that he does seem to be one of the frontrunners as well! However, both Stellan Skarsgård and Delroy Lindo have a career narrative to propel their momentum this coming ceremony, and among those two, I would lean towards Skarsgård as his performance is a masterclass in subtle acting (despite how people may argue that his character feels more like a lead). Lindo’s character in Sinners doesn’t really feel like anything significant, which makes this nomination feels more like an overdue acknowledgement of his long but overlooked career.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
〰️
Best Actress in a Supporting Role 〰️
Contenders:
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Image from Deadline.
Who will win: Teyana Taylor
Next likely to win: Amy Madigan
Notable snubs: Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme, Hailee Steinfeld – Sinners
DE: In a typical Oscars scenario, when there are two nominees from the same movie, one of them usually ends up the winner, but it seems there is an interesting twist this year. Fanning and Lilleaas both give stellar performances in Sentimental Value, but they also seem the least likely to win this category, which is now mostly a two-way race with Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor, with Wunmi Mosaku closing up slightly after having won the Actor Awards.
Adrian: There’s always a couple of surprises at the Oscars, and I think Amy Madigan may just be one of the surprises of the night. The betting favourite probably still has to go with Teyana Taylor, but this is a category that is closer than it seems, even with how monolithic the contingent of One Battle After Another feels this Oscars.
Best Documentary Feature
〰️
Best Documentary Feature 〰️
Contenders:
The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
Come See Me in a Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen
Cutting Through Rocks — Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
Mr. Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková
The Perfect Neighbor — Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee
Image from Time.
Who will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Next likely to win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Notable snubs: Cover-Up, 2000 Metres to Andriivka
Adrian: I am convinced that most Academy voters do not watch any of the films in this category, which is a shame! There’s such a stigma against the genre that is pretty hard to shake off, but I think many modern documentaries have done a lot of narrative and aesthetic experimentation to revitalise the genre. Often, the stories told here are the most meaningful and heartfelt, giving us a glimpse into the world – warts and all – as it is today.
DE: Unfortunately, I am unfamiliar with a lot of these nominees. It does seem that a lot of people are rooting for The Perfect Neighbor, which is about the fatal shooting of Ajike Owens, an African-American woman by her White neighbour Susan Lorincz in Florida, told through the use of body-cam footage.
Best Animated Feature
〰️
Best Animated Feature 〰️
Contenders:
Arco (Neon) – Ugo Bienvenu
Elio (Pixar) – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, and Adrian Molina
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) – Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKids) – Maïlys Vallade and Liane-Cho Han
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush and Byron Howard
Image from Netflix.
Who will win: KPop Demon Hunters
Next likely to win: Zootopia 2
Notable snubs: The Bad Guys 2, Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Ne Zha 2
DE: It is a shame that everybody is ignoring Ne Zha 2 (2025). It became the world’s highest-grossing animated film, and got the entirety of China on a chokehold, and on top of that, I thought it was really good and that it had great animation. A24 tried to acquire its English dub version for distribution in the US, even bagging Michelle Yeoh for the voice acting. Alas, it still flopped – but what did I expect?
I can’t comment on Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc as I don’t know anything about the series, but that movie was the highest-rated film of 2025 on Letterboxd, and all I have ever heard is rave for it. But of course, the Oscars would probably rather find some European animated movie to nominate than choose the obvious blockbusters from the other side of the globe (in spite of their critical acclaim as well). This isn’t to say that Arco or Little Amélie do not deserve it (I’m sure they do), but it does speak volumes of the Eurocentrism that plagues the Oscars, which goes to show their talk about diversity rarely goes past the Bosphorus Strait.
Adrian: It seems pretty certain to me that KPop Demon Hunters is going to win Best Animated Feature. Both Pixar and Walt Disney Pictures have taken a reputational hit in recent years, and are no longer the monolithic titans of the animation industry with a chokehold on the market or the Oscars. Pixar in particular is in a time of renewal and still finding their feet with its second generation of creatives. Personally, I was hoping for a Chainsaw Man: The Movie — Reze Arc to be nominated, but that's perhaps a bridge too far for Academy voters. Anime, even with its mainstream status in pop culture is still considered a fringe genre for critics. Add to that a franchise entry like Reze Arc, a film follow-up to an anime series, which has often been described as a Shonen on drugs, it's perhaps easier than not to see why it hasn't been nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
〰️
Best Original Screenplay 〰️
Contenders:
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Image from Rolling Stone.
Who will win: Sinners
Next likely to win: Sentimental Value
Notable snubs: Jay Kelly, Sorry, Baby, The Testament of Ann Lee
Adrian: It seems likely to me that Sinners will take this Oscar home. Coogler has swept Best Original Screenplay in the BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes so it's hard to argue against that momentum. Personally, I'd love to have Sentimental Value win though. A pensive and emotionally resonant film that relies strongly on its nuanced writing and performances, and while not as splashy as Coogler’s genre-defying Sinners, is a film that also deserves the attention and recognition.
DE: Sinners, with its record-breaking 16 nominations, will most likely take this home. The Academy has shown that there is much industry support behind the film, and I don’t know what else would win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
〰️
Best Adapted Screenplay 〰️
Contenders:
Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O'Farrell
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Image from ArtsKnoxville.
Who will win: One Battle After Another
Next likely to win: Hamnet
Notable snubs: No Other Choice
DE: Once again, I don’t know who else would win this, as it seems pretty obvious that One Battle After Another will take this one home. I can’t even convince myself of somebody else winning this.
Adrian: This category does seem quite cut and dry. One Battle After Another has swept most of the Best Adapted Screenplay categories in other award shows. In my opinion, it's also by far the best adaptation amongst these nominees so it's kind of a win-win scenario in my mind. Though if I were to posit a dark horse, I could possibly convince myself of Hamnet.
Best Cinematography
〰️
Best Cinematography 〰️
Contenders:
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Image from GQ.
Who will win: Sinners
Next likely to win: One Battle After Another
Notable snubs: Magellan, Hamnet, The Mastermind
Adrian: So far, this has been an Oscars dominated by Sinners and One Battle After Another as strong headliners duking it out for the most accolades, but their award narratives are so strong that it feels like everything else has been blotted out by their supernova, casted in shadow. Personally though, I'm rooting for Adolpho Veloso!
DE: I have not watched Train Dreams but it does seem like a lot of people are commenting on its cinematography. Nonetheless, Sinners is probably most likely to win this – a decision I am okay with, as it does contain many beautiful shots of the Southern United States, which feels especially significant for an area that is typically associated with the derelict, flatlands, and bad weather.
Best Sound
〰️
Best Sound 〰️
Contenders:
F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas
Image from Apple TV Press.
Who will win: F1
Next likely to win: Sirāt
Notable snubs: Warfare, Avatar: Fire and Ash
DE: I watched Sirāt, and it is a film where sound is really important to its plot (it’s literally about a rave). I feel like Sirāt might be able to pull a dark-horse win in this category, the same way The Zone of Interest (2023) did a couple years back. But F1 still is our frontrunner, just due to its position as this year’s Top Gun: Maverick (2022) of the award season.
Adrian: If there is anything that defines Kosinski’s work, it is his technical precision and detail. There is so much satisfaction to the way he escalates action in his films and a lot of the heavy work is carried through his editing and his sound design. F1 feels to me like precisely the sort of film to sweep whatever below-the-line category it's in, and considering its surprise addition to the Best Picture category, this reality seems more and more likely.
Best Film Editing
〰️
Best Film Editing 〰️
Contenders:
F1 – Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Image from Forbes.
Who will win: F1
Next likely to win: Marty Supreme
Notable snubs: Hamnet, No Other Choice
Adrian: As mentioned earlier, I think F1 is likely to win this category. However, the Best Film Editing category has also been commonly an indicator of strength for the Best Picture winner and is perhaps the below-the-line category that aligns most with the eventual winners. With that in mind, it really wouldn't be a surprise if either One Battle After Another or Sinners wins this category — though either would be a strong tell for a potential sweep through the night.
DE: It seems likely that F1 will bag all the technical awards, including this category as well. I thought Sentimental Value had some pretty cool transition shots though.
Best Original Score
〰️
Best Original Score 〰️
Contenders:
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet – Max Richter
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Image from Variety.
Who will win: Sinners
Next likely to win: One Battle After Another
Notable snubs: F1, Marty Supreme
DE: For a movie so embedded in music, it seems probable that Ludwig Göransson will win the score for Sinners, which would make it his third win after winning for Black Panther (2018), also directed by Ryan Coogler, and Oppenheimer (2023). I do think the score is a pretty unforgettable part of Sinners, and I wouldn’t object to this choice.
Adrian: I would love for Johnny Greenwood to win here. God knows he deserves it. His scores are always so richly textured, and in One Battle After Another, serves as a continuous mounting point of rising tension — of a rebellion raging in the background. However, it's hard to argue against Ludwig Göransson here, especially with how integral music is to the narrative of Sinners.
Best Visual Effects
〰️
Best Visual Effects 〰️
Contenders:
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean
Image from Variety.
Who will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Next likely to win: Jurassic World Rebirth
Notable snubs: 28 Years Later, Alien: Earth, Fantastic Four: The First Steps, How to Train Your Dragon, Predator: Badlands, Superman, Thunderbolts*, Warfare
Adrian: There’s no arguing against Avatar: Fire and Ash here. Regardless of how you might feel about the efficacy of the third — I, for one, checked out since the first — it’s a film that's undeniably the cutting edge in terms of its technological capabilities and its visual effects. Jurassic World Rebirth (2025) could be a shout, but the real question is: what is The Lost Bus doing here?
DE: I agree with Adrian. The Lost Bus feels like such a random addition to this nomination, but for a film about wildfires, I guess I can see why it made it in. Maybe they should have actually burned a forest. What happened to real filmmaking? But I think the standout snubs for this category are the absence of any superhero films, which is where a lot of superhero films bag their sole nomination in other years.
Best Casting
〰️
Best Casting 〰️
Contenders:
Hamnet – Nina Gold
Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
Sinners – Francine Maisler
Image from Screen Rant.
Who will win: Sinners
Next likely to win: One Battle After Another
Notable snubs: It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value
DE: This is the first ceremony to introduce an award for Casting, so it is difficult to predict where the Academy will lead with this, although Sinners seems the most likely to win as it relies on its ensemble cast a lot. I am surprised that Sentimental Value did not make the cut for this – as all of the main cast got nominated for their acting – and for a film about family, casting the right actors to perfectly portray that strained familial dynamic is arguably as important as its writing.
I will not call it a notable snub because it was never truly in contention, but I’d like to shout out Superman (2025), which would have been my personal choice for this category. I still maintain that Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane may be the best casting choice ever.
Adrian: The Academy Awards have finally expanded their categories to include the recognition of the art of casting — though really, what is the art of casting? What differentiates a great casting director from a mediocre one? Is it merely on the strength of a central performer? Or the dynamics of an ensemble? Well, hopefully the Oscars can go some way to uncover this particular mystery. Though with how closely aligned the Best Casting nominees are to the Best Picture Category, I’m certain that it'll just play out as another indicator of strength for whoever the eventual winner will be. All eyes on you, Sinners and One Battle After Another.
Best Production Design
〰️
Best Production Design 〰️
Contenders:
Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Image from Hammer Museum.
Who will win: Frankenstein
Next likely to win: Sinners
Notable snubs: Wicked: For Good
Adrian: This is likely to be a slam dunk for Frankenstein, another film which I consider a sure-bet for below-the-line categories, and Del Toro’s productions are typically quite recognised within the industry. Personally, I would love if Jack Fisk won an Oscar – a legendary craftsmen with a career spanning over 50 years, working with some of the best directors in Hollywood (Mallick, Lynch, Anderson, Scorsese) – but the momentum or the awards narrative just doesn’t seem to be there. Praying for a surprise!
DE: A pretty boring category, with the same few films that have been ruling the nominations list. I am not familiar with a lot of these films, but I don’t really recall a set design I was really that impressed by from last year’s films aside from Wicked: For Good, which had already won last year for its first movie.
Best Costume Design
〰️
Best Costume Design 〰️
Contenders:
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Image from CNN.
Who will win: Frankenstein
Next likely to win: Sinners/Hamnet
Notable snubs: Hedda, Kokuho
DE: Also a rather boring category. This category usually has some curveball nominations, which has given some movies its sole Oscar win, such as Little Women (2019) and Cruella (2021), but this year’s nominations are just nothing interesting or special. I don’t really understand why Marty Supreme is here.
Adrian: Costume and historical period dramas typically dominate this category and this year is no exception. I can’t see myself betting against Frankenstein here, but I would prefer it if Hamnet or Sinners take home the Oscars. There’s a case to be made for either of them, and the fact that they are both period dramas is to their advantage, but someone else braver than me will have to take the leap of faith on them.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
〰️
Best Makeup and Hairstyling 〰️
Contenders:
Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Image from CBR.
Who will win: Frankenstein
Next likely to win: The Smashing Machine
Notable snubs: 28 Years Later, Alien: Earth, Bring Her Back, Predator: Badlands, Weapons
Adrian: Will it be a monstrous sweep for Frankenstein? Likely, though incredibly boring. In other news, I think it's neat that the category this year has included a couple surprises, notably the addition of Kokuho which recreated the kabuki theatre aesthetics in a film that served as a homage to the art of kabuki.
DE: Wow, some curveballs in this category, how exciting! Japan’s highest-grossing live-action film last year Kokuho, was especially an unpredictable one as the Academy isn’t exactly known to be super inclusive. The Smashing Machine and The Ugly Stepsister also join Kokuho as one-nomination buddies in this category. And while I often like to root for underdogs, I think the award will still go to Frankenstein, just because more people have seen it. That’s just how it works; people can’t reward something they haven’t seen.
Best Original Song
〰️
Best Original Song 〰️
Contenders:
"Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless) – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
"Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters) – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
"I Lied to You" (Sinners) – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
"Sweet Dreams of Joy" (Viva Verdi!) – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
"Train Dreams" from (Train Dreams) – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave
Image from Rolling Stone.
Who will win: “Golden”
Next likely to win: “I Lied to You”
Notable snubs: “Pale, Pale Moon” (Sinners), “The Girl in the Bubble” and “No Place Like Home” (Wicked: For Good)
DE: Probably the most obvious race of the whole ceremony. “Golden” has swept all the major precursors, winning the Grammy for Best Song Written for Visual Media as well. It’s a song that even my mother knows about, and she barely knows much outside of Mandarin songs! In spite of my lack of an understanding as to what everybody sees in this copy of Ive’s “I Am”, its cultural phenomenon is undeniable and awarding this award to any other song, including “I Lied to You” from 16-nomination Sinners, will stick out like a very sore thumb. It also helps that songwriter Ejae has a dark horse narrative going for her, as a dispensed K-pop trainee now on a successful path as a K-pop songwriter. On another note, I truly cannot believe we are about to witness Teddy Park himself win an Academy Award. I am personally not very fond of his discography.
Speaking of which, this category felt pretty cut-and-dry during early predictions when everyone predicted that this had to be Wicked: For Good’s trophy. Cynthia Erivo is an Oscar away from an EGOT, and everybody predicted that this win would be the easiest way for her to complete it as long as she bore a songwriting credit. Unfortunately, Stephen Schwartz fumbled it big time and gave the two leading ladies such boring original songs that I was genuinely taken back by how much those songs did not stand out at all in the film. How do you fumble that hard? You had one job!
Adrian:
♪ We're going up, up, up, it's our moment
You know together we’re glowin’
Gonna be, gonna be golden ♪
Best Animated Short
〰️
Best Animated Short 〰️
Contenders:
Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Forevergreen – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit
Image from Cartoon Brew.
Adrian: The nominated Oscar shorts categories are notoriously difficult to predict, so I’m here instead to platform the Animated Short which I feel should win. As a whole, this slate of films feel pretty strong and all of them deserve the recognition here. Butterfly (2025), with its painterly and impressionistic style, invokes the traditional aesthetic of watercolour using water as a motif for memory as it recounts the life story of Alfred Nakache, a French Jewish swimming champion who was sent to Auschwitz but later returned to compete again in the 1948 Olympics. Poignant and melancholic, capturing a life lived in full. The French animated short is a close second for me, but John Kelly’s Retirement Plan (2025), an understated and often humorous short which explored themes of aging and living in the present, managed to capture my heart with its bittersweet and self-depracating tone. A minimalist hand-drawn aesthetic adds an intimacy to the film which serves as a mirror for audiences to reflect on their own mortality and their fears of living a life half-lived.
Best Live Action Short Film
〰️
Best Live Action Short Film 〰️
Contenders:
Butcher’s Stain – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight and James Dean
Jane Austen’s Period Drama – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Image from Metrograph.
DE: I decided to watch all five of these nominees and there is one that really stood out among the rest, which is Two People Exchanging Saliva (2024), a 36-minute French short set in dystopian Paris where kissing is illegal and slapping is used as a form of currency. It is a well-acted and well-shot story, which stars Iranian-French actress Zahra Amir Ebrahimi and is narrated by Phantom Thread (2017) star Vicky Krieps. It premiered at the 51st Telluride Film Festival, and was then picked up by The New Yorker, who also won last year in the same category for the Dutch short film I’m Not a Robot (2023). It seems that The New Yorker may become the Neon of short films if they continue their streak.
This selection was rather diverse, and were all pretty interesting even if I didn’t particularly enjoy some of them. Butcher’s Stain (2025) is a student film about an Israeli Arab butcher who gets falsely accused of tearing down posters of Israeli hostages; while it is a commendable effort for a student film, it stops short from denouncing Zionism totally and felt a little surface level to me. Big names are attached to some of the other short films, like A Friend of Dorothy (2025) which stars Miriam Margolyes and Stephen Fry, whileEmma Thompson is attached as an “executive menstrual advisor” (whatever that means) to the independently-produced satirical comedy Jane Austen’s Period Drama (2024). Netflix’s The Singers (2025) is a touching story about a group of blue-collar workers in a bar who start a singing competition to win free drinks, forming a strong bond with one another in the meantime.
Best Documentary Short
〰️
Best Documentary Short 〰️
Contenders:
All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: Were and Are Gone – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness – Alison McAlpine
Image from Full Frame.
Adrian: All films which are reckoning with pressing contemporary issues, and all meaningful in its own way. Typically a strong category, and this year is no exception. Most of these films are quite harrowing, with the exception of Perfectly a Strangeness (2025), which captures the beauty and wonder of the universe from the perspective of three donkeys in the desert, but every one of them is worthy of a watch, and of a platform to stand on.
All the Empty Rooms (2025) document the bedrooms of children who were killed in school shootings, capturing the aftermath of grief which remains long after the tragedies and Armed Only with a Camera (2025) is a posthumous portrait of a photojournalist killed in Ukraine who spent his life chasing footage in the most dangerous war-torn places on earth. The film stands as a stirring testimony of a man who put his life on the line to shine a light on the truth.
Though for me, perhaps none of the films were as affecting or as effective as Geeta Gandbhir’s The Devil is Busy (2025). A captivating film about an abortion clinic constantly plagued by anti-abortion protestors. Narrated through the perspective of Tracii, who manages security in the clinic, the film manages to add a human touch to a social issue that has often been charged as merely a political battleground.
Well, that was a doozy. An entire year in film summarised and narrativised in a couple pages and a few dozen categories! Well, no, of course not. There are plenty of films worthy of recognition that weren’t brought up in this discussion, and plenty more films that will leave Oscar night without recognition from the Academy. It’s the nature of award shows to recognise the same few stellar pieces of cinema in a year filled with hundreds of worthy pieces. If you’ve made it this far, you’re clearly a fan of cinema, and so we would love to invite you to join us at NTU’s Film Society’s Group Chat on Telegram to discuss all things Oscars, or to wax lyrical about lesser-seen and lesser-known works. See you there!
The 98th Academy Awards will be held on 15 March at 4pm PDT (16 March at 7am SGT) at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Singaporeans can watch the ceremony live on Channel 5, meWatch, and Disney+.
Images in this article are being used under Fair Use guidelines as part of Singapore's Copyright Act 2021.